CryptoQuant says bitcoin's April price surge was 'speculative' as spot demand remains weak, warns of correction risk
Quick Take
Bitcoin’s price rose about 20% in April, but the rally was driven by perpetual futures demand while spot demand remained weak, CryptoQuant said.
The firm said this divergence is a sign of a "speculative rally" rather than a structural one and may increase the risk of a price correction.
Bitcoin's recent price gains appear to be a "speculative rally" rather than fundamental buying support, increasing the risk of a correction, according to onchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.
Bitcoin rose about 20% in April, from around $66,000 to as high as $79,000. However, this rally was driven mainly by growth in perpetual futures demand, while spot demand remained negative throughout the period, CryptoQuant said.
"Perpetual futures demand was the sole driver of bitcoin's April price rally, while spot apparent demand contracted throughout, a configuration historically associated with unsustained price gains during bear markets," CryptoQuant's head of research, Julio Moreno, wrote in a report.
This divergence, with rising futures demand alongside contracting spot demand, is one of the clearest onchain signals that the rally is speculative rather than structural, Moreno said, noting that it suggests the price rise is driven by leverage rather than fresh bitcoin accumulation.
"Historically, such configurations lack the structural foundation required to sustain price gains and typically resolve via correction once futures positioning unwinds," Moreno said.
Mirroring the pattern of the 2022 bear market?
CryptoQuant said the current demand pattern driven by perpetual futures is similar to what was seen at the start of the 2022 bear market, noting that while this does not guarantee the same outcome this time, the current structure carries "meaningful downside risk."
The divergence suggests that the rally is "not sustainable" and that sustained price rallies during a bull market coincide with demand growth. "Without a reversal in apparent demand from negative to positive, rallies back toward the $79,000 local peak will lack the onchain support needed for a sustained breakout," the firm said.
The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index also declined from 50 to 40 in April, returning to bearish territory below the neutral threshold, the firm said, noting that this confirms onchain fundamentals deteriorated after the recent speculative futures-driven price rally.
"The Bull Score of returning back to 40 indicates conditions are 'getting bearish' and places the market in the same range that historically preceded continued price weakness," the firm concluded. The CryptoQuant Bull Score Index aggregates multiple onchain and market indicators into a 0–100 scale. A score above 50 indicates bullish conditions and below 50 indicates bearish conditions.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $78,500, nearly flat over the past 24 hours, according to The Block's bitcoin price page.